Monday, September 30, 2013

Building the Monster - The Race Against the Salary Cap in Today's NFL


I have to admit that I've been a little puzzled by some of the moves made by Jim Irsay and Ryan Grigson since the latter came in as GM prior to last season. But recently I think I figured it all out.





This a long article which requires some reading, but there is a big payoff for the patient - we're pulling the cover off of the internal workings and plans of Colts management.

Many moves have been made in the last two years by the new regime, but these are the ones I found curious:
  • Reggie Wayne, Projected starting WR, re-signed 2/14/2012 for $17.5 million over three years
  • Vontae Davis, Projected starting CB, acquired 8/26/2012 for our 2013 2nd round pick
  • Gosder Cherilus, Projected starting RT, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $34 million over five years
  • LaRon Landry, Projected starting SS, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $24 million over four years
  • Erik Walden, Projected starting SSOLB, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $16 million over four years
  • Greg Toler, Projected starting CB, signed 3/13/2014 as Free Agent for $14 million over three years
  • Ricky Jean-Francois, Projected starting DE, signed 3/14/2013 as Free Agent for $24 million over four years
  • Aubrayo Franklin, Projected starting NT, signed 3/20/2013 as Free Agent for $1.1 million for one year
  • Ahmad Bradshaw, Possibly projected starting RB, signed 6/11/2013 as Free Agent for $1.1 million for one year
  • Trent Richardson, Projected starting RB, acquired 9/18/2013 for our 2014 first round pick

Now there have been a lot of other transactions, which is to be expected when you are bringing in a new GM and coaching staff - especially with the radical change in philosophy on both sides of the ball. So why do I single these transactions out?

Basically, for the last twenty years or so, there has been a consistent template that teams with new management have followed when taking over a bad team: clean house, trade valuable players for picks, drop salary, acquire lots of draft picks to acquire young players with upside who fit your new system, and acquire an inexpensive veteran or two to provide leadership and mentoring to all these young players.

This is the template the Colts followed in 1998, as have many other teams between now and then. So, why aren't we doing that now?

The answer is that Colts Management feels that if we don't win a championship with Andrew Luck in the next three years, we won't win one at all. That is a pretty strong statement to say the least, but I think I can back it up.

I'll explain why each acquisition was curious  to me at the time it was made - at least when compared to the normal rebuilding template:

Reggie Wayne, Projected starting WR, re-signed 2/14/2012 for $17.5 million over three years
Virtually everyone who follows football expected Wayne to move on to greener pastures after the terrible 2011 season. He was linked to New England, as well as other winning franchises with established quarterbacks. When we re-signed him to a three year contract (with the accompanying criticism), it was widely assumed that the intention was to mentor both Andrew Luck and the young wide receivers we were to acquire in the 2012 draft. This, while surprising, was not that curious - other than at the same time we were aggressively cutting salary by releasing other veteran players.

Curiosity score: 3 out of 10


Vontae Davis, Projected starting CB, acquired 8/26/2012 for our 2013 2nd round pick
This one surprised everyone, and it was the first indication to me that something strange was going on. Acquiring Davis via trade for our 2nd round pick flew in the face of any traditional rebuilding strategy. The first issue was giving up a 2nd, the next was the idea of bringing a potentially disgruntled player into a young and impressionable locker room. Rebuilding teams just don't make these kinds of trades. This was the sort of thing that good teams do to plug a hole. The assumption being that you are bringing in a player who is talented, but has had troubles, into a solid locker room where he can learn how to conduct himself by the examples of the veteran leaders. 

The only way this trade made sense at the time was that Grigson was convinced that the Colts could very quickly become a playoff team. That's the only reason you give up a high draft pick to plug a hole.

Curiosity score: 8 out of 10


Gosder Cherilus, Projected starting RT, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $34 million over five years
Another strange decision for a rebuilding team. Ok, we went to the playoffs in 2012, so maybe we weren't rebuilding. Still, it's rare for a team with a new regime to be signing veterans with no upside to plug holes. And clearly Grigson had Cherilus targeted, signing Cherilus on the first day of free agency for a bit more money than the NFL media expected.



Curiosity score: 6 out of 10


LaRon Landry, Projected starting SS, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $24 million over four years
Again, a strange decision for a young team. Landry went to the Pro Bowl for the lowly Jets in 2012. The Colts already had Pro Bowler Antoine Bethea at one safety spot, and I think most people would have expected them to draft a young player to groom for the other safety spot. I mean with Davis, Bethea, Butler, and some other holdovers, the Colts looked to have a pretty good secondary. It seemed like a natural that they would build through the draft. Instead they conclusively plugged a hole with a Pro Bowler.

Curiosity score: 7 out of 10


Erik Walden, Projected starting SSOLB, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $16 million over four years
This is the one that the NFL media (you know, those "experts" who can't get a job actually contributing in the NFL) and Colts fans point to as a Ryan Grigson "mistake." Well, from my POV, Walden has been very good at what he was brought in to do: Be a rugged edge setter at strong outside linebacker. Setting the edge - you heard that mentioned by multiple members of the Colts coaches and management on the day of the signing. I think every time they said that, they were firing a shot at the departed Jerry Hughes, our strong outside linebacker from 2012. Now for a young team, this is not that surprising a move. But this is the sort of signing that you make after the big money has been spent in free agency. Clearly Grigson and his staff were convinced that Walden was exactly what they needed, and they took no chances that they'd lose him by targeting him for immediate signing on the first day of free agency. From what I have seen from him so far (aside from a mental error here and there), he has been exactly what we wanted. But the timing and the amount of the signing were most unusual.

Curiosity score: 9 out of 10


Greg Toler, Projected starting CB, signed 3/13/2014 as Free Agent for $14 million over three years
Another strange pickup. Toler was known in league circles as a top-flight talent at CB, but he had been constantly injured and had not really shown anything thus far in his career. So, what was this about? Another move that only makes sense if you are a contending team and just need to plug a hole. Toler was a gamble, but when healthy, he gives us a 2nd physical specimen at CB, when paired with Vontae Davis. His play this year has been a little uneven, but he has made some really nice plays against both the run and the pass. If he gets a little more consistent  we'll have two pro bowl talents at CB, combined with two former pro bowlers at safety. Clearly we were shooting for the moon with this signing. At minimum this gives defensive coordinator Greg Manusky the ability to blitz; knowing that he has two physical bump and run cornerbacks and a quality nickle CB (Darius Butler) to harass receivers.

Curiosity score: 7 out of 10


Ricky Jean-Francois, Projected starting DE, signed 3/14/2013 as Free Agent for $24 million over four years
Another quick fix. Jean-Francois was a quality backup for the Super Bowl San Francisco 49ers, and he was signed to start opposite Cory Redding at defensive end. This guy was more of a normal signing: a 26 year old quality backup on a powerhouse team. He really was only a curious signing in that this was still not building through the draft - where you may be able to get the same production out of a cheaper player. The point is may. Clearly the Colts weren't interested in taking that gamble. This signing was also curious when considering that they also ended up signing Aubrayo Franklin six days later (more on him next).

Curiosity score: 3 out of 10


Aubrayo Franklin, Projected starting NT, signed 3/20/2013 as Free Agent for $1.1 million for one year
Considering they had just signed Jean-Francois, signing a 33 year old cast off from San Diego seemed a little strange - especially as this was still during the big money period of free agency. A slightly undersized nose tackle at 6'1", 317 lbs, he is clearly a stop-gap veteran plug in. Sound familiar?





Curiosity score: 5 out of 10


Ahmad Bradshaw, Possible projected starting RB, signed 6/11/2013 as Free Agent for $1.1 million for one year
Another move that does not fit the typical young team template. The Colts signed Bradshaw late in the pre-season, perhaps delayed due to the health and healing of his foot injury, and perhaps due to the players in camp not being what Grigson and Pagano wanted. Either way, young teams building through the draft do not bring in 27 year old running backs with an injury history. And there is still the question of whether he was brought in to start or not. We'll never know now with Vick Ballard going down for the season before Bradshaw was totally up to speed. Again, whether he was intended to be the eventual starter or just a high-quality backup, this is a move normally made by a championship contender to decisively plug a hole.

Curiosity score: 8 out of 10


Trent Richardson, Projected starting RB, acquired 9/18/2013 for our 2014 first round pick
Boom, take that. By trading our 2014 first rounder to Cleveland, this was our announcement to the rest of the league that patience was not our watch-word. This is a building the monster right now type move. In Trent Richardson, we now have a large, bruising running back that is the ideal fit for Pagano's vision and Pep Hamilton's offense. Cleveland Browns GM Michael Lombardi (no relation to Mark Lombardi, abstract painter known for his network diagrams of crime and conspiracy), has been on record numerous times (during his time as a paid pundit for NFL Network and The National Football Post) as minimizing the importance of the running back in today's NFL; actually poking fun at teams like the 49ers for building a team around a strong running game. And lookie what he was handed upon taking the job with the Browns: a high priced running back. Anyone who knows Lombardi would not surprised that he would trade away a young talented back like Richardson. And anyone who knows Lombardi would not be surprised at his willingness to make an extremely unpopular move . . .  cough cough Kosar cough cough . . . Sorry, having a Breaking Bad moment, but without the mad cash. Anyways, that a team like the Colts being the trade partner - and during the season no less! Shocking. This was a move that says: We are winning this year or next. Period. A trade like this during the season only makes sense if you are unwilling to compromise your year after an injury like the one that ended Vick Ballard's season. Rumblings are that Cleveland initiated the talks, but even then - this was a big deal.

Curiosity score: 10 out of 10


Now these ratings are based on the template that other young, rebuilding teams have followed. But when you view each move as part of a win now approach, each makes perfect sense and is not curious at all.

I mean you have either 11 out of 11 or 10 out of 11 acquisitions for players projected to start for your team in a two year period - when you are supposed to be rebuilding. Unheard of.

So, why the hurry anyways? If Luck plays fifteen years, surely there is plenty of time - Right?

Wrong: The Colts have a three year window to win the Super Bowl with Luck. 

Because that's when his economical rookie contract ends after the 2015 season. That is when resigning him will necessitate (due to the salary cap) changing the entire structure of the team, just like what the Colts did to good (but not great) success after Manning's rookie contract expired. This is where the Giants, Patriots, Ravens, Packers, and Saints are right now.

Once you have a massive contract for your QB which might easily take upwards of  20% or more of your entire salary cap, you can no longer expect to be able to afford a veteran heavy team with pro-bowlers all over the place. Irsay had a front row seat to a string of Colts teams that got weaker each successive year. Manning covered up a LOT of holes, thus hiding the decline of our overall talent, evidenced by our complete collapse in 2011 when he was injured. Irsay knows that everything is setting up that same situation starting in 2016 - which will be the first year of Luck's next contract. 

 That was a pre-emptive "sh!" Now, I have a
whole bag of "sh!" with your name on it.



Anyone who follows the NFL closely at all, understands that the stated length of player contract and the total amount is really meaningless. The things that insiders want to know is: How much guaranteed money (the money the player will get even if he later gets cut), and how long until an escalator clause makes it likely the team will be forced to re-sign the player or cut him. So, lets again list these new acquisitions, this time highlighting their contracts:



Reggie Wayne, WR, re-signed 2/14/2012 for $17.5 million over three years
Real contract: $17.5 million over three years, no huge cut-inducing ballon payments. Clearly this is a contract the Colts intended to be completed. Contract ends after the 2014 season.

Vontae Davis, CB, acquired 8/26/2012 for our 2013 2nd round pick
Real contract: Reasonable rookie contract, ends after the 2014 season.

Gosder Cherilus, RT, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $34 million over five years
Real contract: With a the first balloon payment coming before the 2015 season, probably ends after the 2014 season.

LaRon Landry, SS, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $24 million over four years
Real contract: No balloon payments, ends after the 2016 season.

Erik Walden, SSOLB, signed 3/13/2013 as Free Agent for $16 million over four years

Real contract: No balloon payments, ends after the 2016 season.


Greg Toler, CB, signed 3/13/2014 as Free Agent for $14 million over three years
Real contract: No balloon payments, ends after the 2016 season.


Ricky Jean-Francois, DE, signed 3/14/2013 as Free Agent for $24 million over four years
Real contract: A couple of high payments that may result in him being cut, but not too high. Contact ends after the 2016 season.


Aubrayo Franklin, NT, signed 3/20/2013 as Free Agent for $1.1 million for one year
Real contract: One year, stop-gap contract. Ends after 2013 season.


Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, signed 6/11/2013 as Free Agent for $1.1 million for one year
Real contract: One year, stop-gap contract. Ends after 2013 season.


Trent Richardson, RB, acquired 9/18/2013 for our 2014 first round pick
Real contract: Reasonable rookie contract, ends after the 2016 season.


So, basically, every player that the Colts have acquired has a contract that will effectively end after the 2016 season - right when they will need to shovel cash into Andrew Luck's deserving pockets.


Who wants to bet me that any free agents they may sign next year will have contracts that effectively expire after the 2016 season? Anyone?

I see this as a pretty big deal. Basically the Colts seem to think that they must win before the 2016 season ends; despite the fact that Luck will then presumably be entering the prime of his career. 


This is a pretty damming statement on the current way the NFL is structured financially.



Is it possible to win the Super Bowl nowadays while carrying a high-dollar Quarterback? Sound off in the comments . . .

Monday, August 26, 2013

2013 Preseason notes: Road-Grading the Offensive Lineman

The 2012 Indianapolis Colts offensive line was a mixed bag, caught in the transition from the small, intelligent, and mobile blockers favored by former offensive line coach Howard Mudd, to the larger power-type blocker preferred by Head Coach Chuck Pagano. A factor speeding the transition was that the players left over from the 2011 team and prior were not particularly talented, young, or healthy. The Offensive Line issues previously covered up by Peyton Manning became fully exposed.


Ryan Grigson used an extra-long scoop to fully explore the bottle of the barrel, bringing in stop-gap players such as Mike McGlynn and Samson Satele. The 2012 Colts offensive line was indeed a larger, more powerful group. In the end, it really just meant that they stunk it up in a different manner than the 2011 offensive line.

Lets review the visual evidence:

              Ow!                        Group Hug!                 Watch it!              This chair is rock-hard            No riders!               Really?  

Wow. And that was before the game even started.

So, are things better now? What has changed?

Gone:
  • A.Q. Shipley

New Players Acquired:
  • Gosder Cherilus, Right Tackle, Free Agent from Detroit
  • Donald Thomas, Guard, Free Agent from New England
  • Hugh Thornton, Guard, Rookie, drafted 3rd round
Instead of speaking generally about the above names, I'll just go into my grading for each player on the offensive line. Bear in mind that a "A" grade represents a player in the top tier at his position, and who is a good fit for the Colt's scheme.

Starters (current):

Left Tackle: Anthony Castonzo, Grade C+
Castonzo was the last 1st round pick from the horribly failed Chris Polian era (2004-2011), and like most Chris Polian picks, this was a pick for need. Unfortunately, Castonzo was more of the kind of LT that we looked for back then, not so much what we are looking for now.

Basically, Castonzo is a average LT in the league today, but is undersized for what Pagano wants on offense. He is a better than average drive blocker, but can be overwhelmed when matched up with a huge defensive end. He is a better than average pass blocker, relying more on quick feet and technique, than size and power. Again, he can be overwhelmed in pass protection by a larger defender.

Is the C+ grade harsh? No. While he is better than average at both run and pass blocking, he simply does not fit our scheme. He is signed through next year, and I can guarantee you he will not be re-signed. It's even possible that he will be cut this upcoming off-season. You heard it here first people.

Anthony Castonzo Breakdown:
Technique / discipline: B
Size / strength:            C
Overall talent level:     C+
Scheme fit:                 D


Left Guard: Donald Thomas, Grade C+
We signed Donald Thomas away from the New England Patriots, where he was a bench player pressed into a fair amount of action. While he acquitted himself well, the Pats had no intention of letting him compete for a starting job in 2013. It's probably silly, but I always have a little bit of paranoia in grabbing a player that the Patriots allow to get away. Like any team they try to retain their best players, but when they give huge contract extensions to trigger-happy gang-bangers, what is Donald Thomas - a serial killer perhaps? Don't say you haven't wondered the same thing. One thing is that they seem to like larger guards, as do we. He is slightly undersized for what we want to do going forward, so I'd be surprised if he is a long-term solution for us.
Dammit Donald, you let someone get within 15 yards
of me. Now I have to go and change my armour.

So, how does Stabby McStabstab grade out on the field so far? Pretty good I'd say. I haven't seen him make a single truly excellent play, but I have seen him make the expected play most times. I've also watched him make some pretty serious mental errors though, and I'm trying to attribute them to the new environment instead of something worse. And there's also been a couple of times when his hustle level did not seem to match those around him. Maybe he's just confused by playing with a QB that doesn't wet 'em when he gets pressure around his feet.

I do expect him to improve, so I'll keep an eye on him.

Donald Thomas Breakdown:
Technique / discipline: C+
Size / strength:            B-
Overall talent level:     B-
Scheme fit:                 C+

Center: Samson Satele, Grade C+
Setele was one of Ryan Grigson's free agent pick-ups from 2012, and was expected to provide a steady, yet unspectacular presence at center. This he did; until he got hurt. He was in good company though, as the line was riddled with injuries and players were shifting positions faster than your local politician.

Satele is a smart player, which is how he makes up for his physical shortcomings. A bit undersized and underpowered for what the Colts ideally want, Samson is still a key part of the team. That said, with a large cap number for 2014, I expect him to be cut after the season. This is the same situation as Castonzo and Thomas; they are not the ideal physical type that Grigson is looking for. Satele and Thomas were signed because they were the closest fit that met the price we could pay. It's going to be a pretty deep draft for offensive linemen next year, so expect a few changes.

Samson Satele Breakdown:
Technique / discipline: B+
Size / strength:            C
Overall talent level:     C+
Scheme fit:                 C-


Right Guard, Mike McGlynn, Grade D
I want to start this off by saying I don't know Mr. McGlynn personally, and I am very aware that he could totally kick my ass. But from what I saw from him last year, and from what I've seen so far this year; my grade on him might be a little high.

McGlynn getting overpowered by
elderly gentleman. 
Unlike the first three players I reviewed, McGlynn fits the size parameters that Pagano is looking for. At 6'4", 325 lbs, he looks the part. The only problem is that his size and his strength simply do not match up. Just this year, I have seen him get completely run over while both pass blocking and run blocking. He has good mobility for his size, but he lacks explosive strength, and plays like a much smaller player.

He does play with good technique, but when he has a large and powerful player across from him, he (and those who depend on him) are in for a long day. He is a better physical fit at center.

I do not expect him to be the starter in the 2013 season opener. Who will replace him? Let's not get ahead of ourselves, more on that later in the article.

Mike McGlynn Breakdown:
Technique / discipline: B+
Size / strength:            D-
Overall talent level:     C-
Scheme fit:                 D


Right Tackle, Gosder Cherilus, Grade C+
Cherilus was clearly high on Grigson's list as he wasted no time in signing the former Detroit tackle on the first day of free agency. There was some grumbling about the large contract in league circles, but if he's your guy, you do what it takes - so, that did not bother me. What did bother me a little was that Detroit did not seem to feel it was very important to retain him. Of course Detroit has some pretty bad command and control issues, so maybe I shouldn't put too much stock into what they do or don't want.

I was not familiar with Cherilus from his time in Detroit. I don't really watch Detroit games, and since he does not play for a New York team or the Cowboys, there's no reason for anyone to have ever heard of him. Based on what I've seen from him so far this preseason, he looks like Ryan Diem in his prime: basically a pretty good right tackle. And he fits what Grigson is looking for in the size/strength ratio.

Of course that should rate a better grade than C+, right? Except for a few blown assignments in pass protection, he would have rated a B; but those blown assignments were pretty scary. So far this year, I have seen him beat inside and outside by rushers. And when he gets beat, he gets beat clean - for a big shot on the QB. This is bad.

Now because I am not too familiar with his early albums, I really don't know if this is a case of a veteran not caring about pre-season too much, or maybe he's dealing with some minor injuries. Either way, he needs to be more consistent in his pass blocking.

His run blocking has ranged from good to great. He does not seem to have the raw brute strength of a pure road grater, but he's strong enough and persistent. He has very good balance and he moves his feet well. Unless he has an inconvenient injury, we should expect him to be our starting right tackle through next season, but with a large cap number in 2015, he will probably be cut after next season. Like I said earlier, the 2014 draft class looks to be deep in offensive linemen. Cherilus's replacement will be drafted next season.

Gosder Cherilus Breakdown:
Technique / discipline: C+
Size / strength:            B+
Overall talent level:     B
Scheme fit:                 B+


Basically it looks like I have the Colts offensive line averaged out to a C+ grade. Is this average for the league? Probably.

What about the reserves? Well, I'm not going to go into depth on each of them. Jeff Linkenbach is a adequate spot replacement for either tackle position, and a stop-gap at either guard slot. I expect him to make the team this year. I imagine that rookie Khaled Holmes will make it. Joe Reitz is not a scheme fit (too small and weak), but he might make this year's squad based on him knowing where to line-up.

But the guy I really want to talk about is the guy who will soon be the starting right guard for your Indianapolis Colts: 2013 3rd round pick, Hugh Thornton:

Right Guard, Hugh Thornton, Grade B+
I can't even say how impressed I am with this guy. At 6'3" and 330 lbs, he is an ideal fit for the body type that Grigson wants in our offensive line. And unlike some of our other players, he plays stronger than his size would suggest. In just two of his series against the Browns starters, I watched him violently pancake two different very large players on run plays. Also in one of these two series, I watched him take a blitzing LB (who had timed the snap perfectly) and pick him up and rag doll him. Slammed him to the freaking ground. I have not seen a player at guard in the NFL with this sort of strength since Larry Allen of the Cowboys.

In extended playing time with the starters, he only had two plays where it could be said that he should have performed better. One was a blitzer who timed the snap perfectly and caused a hurried pass from Luck, and the other was a DL on a slanted rush who surprise him to the inside. His man didn't make the tackle, but the play was disrupted.

That's it. Other than that, it was ass-kicking power and head on a swivel awareness. He was ridiculous. I imagine that McGlynn has been allowed to occupy the right guard position out of veteran respect, but unless there is something behind the scenes that I can't see, Thornton is a massive upgrade over anyone we could possibly put into the right guard position. He's that good.

You want to know why we all the sudden started moving the ball on the ground in the third series against the Browns? Whoever we had playing RG got hurt and Thornton came in for him. It was that much of a difference.

Hugh Thornton Breakdown:
Technique / discipline: C
Size / strength:            A+
Overall talent level:     A
Scheme fit:                 A+

So, expect to see Thornton starting, sooner than later.

Where does this leave us? Can we compete for the Super Bowl with this offensive line? Yes we can. Line play has become somewhat depreciated by recent rule changes favoring the passing game. In the last few years, we have seen a team with the worst offensive line in the league win the Super Bowl (Pittsburgh), and last year Green Bay's horrific line did not stop Aaron Rodgers from looking like superman.

And we have our own superman, in the person of Andrew Luck. With this year's new emphasis on the short passing game, I can't imagine that Luck will see anything close to the level of pressure he got in Arian's downfield passing offense. That and with better talent and experience at WR, I think we are looking at a very nice year on offense.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

2013 Preseason notes: Lets talk about this whole "Gap" situation . . .

The 2012 Colts defense was a work in progress. Newly hired defensive coordinator Greg Manusky was charged with building a stout 3-4 defense, with players drafted and trained in the speed-kills Dungy 4-3 defense. The results were mostly encouraging.

The 2012 Colts stayed mostly vanilla in their schemes, which makes sense given that the players had a lot of technique-based things to learn, and forcing a complex scheme on them at the same time could have been disastrous. I'm looking at you 2012 Philadelphia Eagles.

There is also the fact (and I've not seen this mentioned elsewhere) that the style of defense that the Colts played prior to 2012 did not require players who were intelligent enough to execute complex coverages and subtle line play. I'm not saying they couldn't have handled it . . . well, ok - there were some who couldn't handle it. But those guys are gone now, and hopefully things are simpler in Buffalo.
Jerry Hughes to Tim Tebow: "How many fingers am
I holding up? Let me know when I get to three."

Tony Dungy always said, "If you can count to three, you can play in my defense." 

Well, in a mature 3-4 defense, you need to be able to count backwards from ten and do some light division.

So, what can the 2013 Exhibition Pre-season tell us about what we'll see in the regular season? The answer is: a lot.

First things first, it's clear from watching the Giants and Browns games that Greg Manusky spent a lot of time watching film of the 2012 Houston Texans. Who knows, maybe he did some light housework and ran some errands for Wade Phillips. Why do I say this? Because in the course of a mere two seasons, the Colts have gone from playing one of the simplest defensive schemes in the last 40 years of the NFL - to one of the most complex.
"I'm four-gapping this biatch!"

Last season the Colts defensive line exclusively played two-gap technique, even in clear passing
situations. Basically instead of trying to get around a blocker any way they could as in the Dungy defense, two-gap technique has a large defensive player trying to control both sides of a blocker - preventing that blocker from controlling him, while also trying to just be in the way. In this sort of scheme, the defensive linemen get very few sacks and tackles - and hence little glory or attention. Their job is to control the offensive line, and keep the linebackers "clean" so they can roam sideline to sideline and make plays.

The Texans J.J. Watt racked up 20.5
sacks, despite playing without a helmet.
"Wait," you say, your hand waving plaintively in the air, "What about Watt?" You adopt the smug self-satisfied smile of a person who gets all of his football opinions from the behind-the-scenes producers at ESPN. "What about Watt?" I say, readying myself for some parrot barf.

"Well, he plays in a 3-4, I saw it on ESPN! And he had like 40 sacks!"
"Actually it was more like 20 1/2."
"A half a sack?" you snort, "Now you're just making bleep up."
"The half sack was for tackling Tim Tebow, he only counts as a half a QB."

Well, ok, here's the when, why, and the how on Watt:

The Texans do play a 3-4 alignment, but that is about the end of the similarities between what the Texans do under Wade Phillips, and what other 3-4 teams in the league do. The Texans do a lot of funky stuff, and one of those things is that they constantly shift between having their defensive linemen player two-gap and one-gap. This causes a lot of turmoil with the opposing offense's linemen - not knowing if the 320 lbs beast across from you is going to try to stand his ground and grab you, or explode into a gap on either side of you.
After discovering that all NFL Quarterbacks like Matzah Ball Soup,
and Offensive Linemen are all Crepe Eaters; the game of football
becomes easy for young Bjorn Von Werner-Kempler.
This is what I have seen from the 2013 Colts. They are switching between two-gap and one gap every couple of plays. In many cases, only one or two of the three lineman have played one-gap. This is something I've only seen from a Wade Phillips defense.

Against the Giants, the Colts played one-gap on most 1st and 10's in normal situations. On 2nd down passing situations, they randomly played a mix of the two. Midway through the first quarter after the Giants got into our red zone after that pass interference call, on 1st and goal, the Colts went one gap and blew up a pass play. On 2nd down they played two-gap. On 3rd and 1, they went one-gap and blew up a run. 4th down - GTFOTF!
I learned my tolerance from the Master: "Playoffs?!? Playoffs?!? Allow me
to answer that question with a murder-spree at your next family reunion."

"Well, I didn't hear any of this on ESPN," you say, trying to reconcile this into your media-created reality bubble, "In fact, according to ESPN, the only players on the Colts roster are Andrew Luck and Darrius Heyward Bey, and they never said they were playing any sort of gap."

This sort of attitude is why if I ever somehow became an NFL Head Coach, my era would be known for being the most hilarious, as well as the shortest. Suffering fools gladly is the #1 quality required to be a coach nowadays. And it is a talent not very many people have.

Anywho, oh yeah, we were talking about football.

Now I know that switching gap technique on the defensive line does not seem too terribly complicated. Well, it's not. But what is complicated is that each lineman needs to know what the others are doing, so they can compensate. If your left defensive end is going to charge on on that 3rd and 1 play, the other linemen need to be aware of that so that a massive hole is not left where the linemen vacated.

Plus the linebackers play a different technique in that situation. If one or more of the defensive linemen are charging into their one gap, there's going to be more blockers to deal with for you. Trust me, there's a lot to keep track of.

I'll be writing more about the Colts defensive scheme; but I'll tell you right now - we goin' BEAST mode this year. Yah boiz.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Kickoffs proposal

This weekend I was thinking about the current movement to get rid of the kickoff in the NFL. I'm not really in favor of that, but I did think about a way to do it that would be interesting:


Move extra point to the 40 yard line – the team scoring the touchdown has choice to kick it from there, or forego the extra point and have the opposing team be given the ball on their own 20. 

If they decide to go for the extra point and miss, then the opposing team gets the ball at the spot of the kick. The option to go for 2 points would also look a lot more attractive. This would make the game more exciting and add more strategy to what now is a perfunctory act.

But what about the kickoff after a team makes a field goal? The opposing team should get the ball at the spot of the kick whether the FG is made or not. This would discourage long field goals and encourage team to go for it on 4th down more.

For field goal attempts inside the 20 yard line; you could either go with keeping the rule I describe above the same, or if you wanted to not overly award teams choosing to kick field goals, you could say that a close in kick will result in the opposition getting the ball on their own 20 yard line.

Another suggestion that I think will improve the game:

Make all FG attempts from the 40 yard line - no matter how close the offense is to the goal line. This would also encourage teams to go for it on 4th down, as well as making a team think twice about running the clock down at the end of the game when they are driving for a game tying FG.


Sunday, August 5, 2012

What can Broncos fans expect from Manning and their team?

The linked words are an important part of this article, please remember to take a look at them . . .


Saith the outgoing Denver QB:
How come you two aren't sinking?
I'm taking a break from my non-stop Colts coverage to put in my final word on Peyton Manning and what Broncos fans can expect to see this season . . . and beyond. Any question? Feel free to contact me at (508) 543-8200


So, what are we looking at here?


In my opinion, Manning will have a dominant year and the Broncos are my favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this upcoming season. 


Why?


First of all, this Broncos team is more talented top to bottom than the two Colts teams that Manning took to the Super Bowl. Yes, I mean that.


Edgerrin James, right before
he blew out his knee.
Secondly, this will be the first time Manning has had a running game to work with since 2005. That was Edgerrin James's last season in Indy and at that time the offensive line was already starting to fade. As soon as defenses figured out that the Colts did not have a viable run threat, they started ignoring run fakes. If you look at Manning's yard per attempt by year, you'll see what I mean.



Chris Polian: Quinn Pitcock? Oh yeah,
he's got the best thumbs I've ever seen!


Peyton spent the final years of his Colt's career saddled by one bad Chris Polian pick after another - colossal busts Joseph Addai and Tony Ugoh being the foremost in my mind. 


I appreciate that Bill Polian wanted to cement his various offspring into cushy positions, but that fatherly instinct destroyed the Colts dynasty.




No caption could make
this more ridiculous.
Owner Jim Irsay waited too long to pull the plug on the rampant nepoliantism going on in the organization. This was a smell that even Lemon Zest couldn't cover up.







Mike Florio (right) passes his wisdom on to his new 
lead rumor-monger. Fifth new guy this week!
The current "topic" of conversation amongst the talent-less dregs that make up those who are paid to cover the NFL, is that Manning has not been throwing deep in Broncos Training Camp so far. From this they conclude that Manning's arm has not recovered enough to throw deep yet.


This is complete and utter BS. Seeing as how it takes far more arm strength to throw intermediate passes over the deep middle and middle outside of the field; what could possibly make someone think there is something wrong with his arm - based on the fact that he is not throwing long? 


The answer is idiocy. Sometimes these guys run out of bad things to say about their co-workers and start blindly lashing out at others.


One of the things that you Denver Fans are about to find out: Peyton Manning is possible the most misunderstood player in NFL history - by the mainstream NFL media that is.


That is why the vast majority of "analysis" you hear or read about him is sadly wrong. This Manning does not play in New York or New England. That means that most of the people "analyzing" Manning are doing so from highlights from the red zone channel. These knucleheads could never be bothered to actually watch a non-big market game all the way through. Anything west of Buffalo is just "fly-over territory" to these people.


This is why the article I wrote breaking down what was actually going on with Manning was such a hit. It was the first time that fans read something that actually jibed with what they saw with their own eyes.


Phil, your skin looks FANTASTIC!
About the only two analysts that seem to understand what Manning does is Phil Simms and Troy Aikman. Those are the only guys I can think of that don't spew incorrect information non-stop during a game.
This is why you should watch NFL games with the sound off. Someday, maybe the NFL will let you switch the audio track to what the announcers are spoon-fed in their earphones. That would be better.






John Madden to Jon Gruden: "Football isn't
interesting by itself! It's all about YOU!"
If you enjoy a game done by clowns like John Madden or Jon Gruden, then this article, blog, comments section, sport, etc, is not for you. Please leave now. This blog is about football. Not clowning.






What you are about to see in Denver is the rebirth of the best run faker in recent history. When Manning had his best statistical years with the Colts, they had Edgerrin James running that ball. James (after he blew out his knee) was amazing at getting four or five yards out of a running play that was blocked well enough for one. By running him on first downs, they Colts were constantly in 2nd and five type situations that really stressed the defense.


Even with losing their most powerful
blocker, Denver still has a great line.
This is what I see happening again with the Broncos. They excelled at run blocking last year - only partly because they had to.


Brandon Stokley's biggest fan
looks for an autograph.
With Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Stokley, Manning will have two serious threats to throw to on play action passes. During his record-breaking year in 2004, Manning used play fakes to constantly get Stokley open over the deep middle. He will do the same in Denver - at least until Stokley gets hurt. Basically, expect Eric Decker to take over the slot role for good after about two games.


The one weapon that Manning will really miss is Dallas Clark. Yes, I understand that Jacob Tamme, his former understudy, is on the team. He can look good in certain circumstances. Unfortunately for Tamme, the Broncos don't play in the CFL.


Whenever a NFL defense decided to take Tamme out of the game, all they had to do was put someone strong and powerful on him and he was done. Don't believe me? Just go dig up the tape on the Colts 2010 playoff loss to the Jets. The plastic bag in American Beauty has more power to stand it's ground than this guy.


It is clear to me that John Elway is doing a great job with the Broncos. He did not give Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, or Reggie Wayne a sniff. Why? Because they are old and done. Who wants a team that loses half their team to injuries every year - like the Colts did in recent times.

I trust Elway to put a viable team around Manning; the guy has been golden so far. And with a good defense, there will be no stopping Peyton. 
Mmmm... tastes like...  Victory!


He'd have six rings right now if he'd been lucky enough to be a unheralded 6th rounder whose arm strength took a mysterious quantum leap after college.










Other relevant links:


What Peyton Manning is doing (and how to beat him)

Should crazy people be allowed on the internet?