What can Broncos fans expect from Manning and their team?

The linked words are an important part of this article, please remember to take a look at them . . .

Saith the outgoing Denver QB:
How come you two aren't sinking?

I'm taking a break from my non-stop Colts coverage to put in my final word on Peyton Manning and what Broncos fans can expect to see this season . . . and beyond. Any question? Feel free to contact me at (508) 543-8200


So, what are we looking at here?


In my opinion, Manning will have a dominant year and the Broncos are my favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this upcoming season. 


Why?


First of all, this Broncos team is more talented top to bottom than the two Colts teams that Manning took to the Super Bowl. Yes, I mean that.

Edgerrin James, right before
he blew out his knee.

Secondly, this will be the first time Manning has had a running game to work with since 2005. That was Edgerrin James's last season in Indy and at that time the offensive line was already starting to fade. As soon as defenses figured out that the Colts did not have a viable run threat, they started ignoring run fakes. If you look at Manning's yard per attempt by year, you'll see what I mean.

Chris Polian: Quinn Pitcock? Oh yeah,
he's got the best thumbs I've ever seen!

Peyton spent the final years of his Colt's career saddled by one bad Chris Polian pick after another - colossal busts Joseph Addai and Tony Ugoh being the foremost in my mind. 


I appreciate that Bill Polian wanted to cement his various offspring into cushy positions, but that fatherly instinct destroyed the Colts dynasty.

No caption could make
this more ridiculous.

Owner Jim Irsay waited too long to pull the plug on the rampant nepoliantism going on in the organization. This was a smell that even Lemon Zest couldn't cover up.

Mike Florio (right) passes his wisdom on to his new 
lead rumor-monger. Fifth new guy this week!

The current "topic" of conversation amongst the talent-less dregs that make up those who are paid to cover the NFL, is that Manning has not been throwing deep in Broncos Training Camp so far. From this they conclude that Manning's arm has not recovered enough to throw deep yet.


This is complete and utter BS. Seeing as how it takes far more arm strength to throw intermediate passes over the deep middle and middle outside of the field; what could possibly make someone think there is something wrong with his arm - based on the fact that he is not throwing long? 


The answer is idiocy. Sometimes these guys run out of bad things to say about their co-workers and start blindly lashing out at others.


One of the things that you Denver Fans are about to find out: Peyton Manning is possible the most misunderstood player in NFL history - by the mainstream NFL media that is.


That is why the vast majority of "analysis" you hear or read about him is sadly wrong. This Manning does not play in New York or New England. That means that most of the people "analyzing" Manning are doing so from highlights from the red zone channel. These knucleheads could never be bothered to actually watch a non-big market game all the way through. Anything west of Buffalo is just "fly-over territory" to these people.


This is why the article I wrote breaking down what was actually going on with Manning was such a hit. It was the first time that fans read something that actually jibed with what they saw with their own eyes.

Phil, your skin looks FANTASTIC!

About the only two analysts that seem to understand what Manning does is Phil Simms and Troy Aikman. Those are the only guys I can think of that don't spew incorrect information non-stop during a game.
This is why you should watch NFL games with the sound off. Someday, maybe the NFL will let you switch the audio track to what the announcers are spoon-fed in their earphones. That would be better.

John Madden to Jon Gruden: "Football isn't
interesting by itself! It's all about YOU!"

If you enjoy a game done by clowns like John Madden or Jon Gruden, then this article, blog, comments section, sport, etc, is not for you. Please leave now. This blog is about football. Not clowning.






What you are about to see in Denver is the rebirth of the best run faker in recent history. When Manning had his best statistical years with the Colts, they had Edgerrin James running that ball. James (after he blew out his knee) was amazing at getting four or five yards out of a running play that was blocked well enough for one. By running him on first downs, they Colts were constantly in 2nd and five type situations that really stressed the defense.

Even with losing their most powerful
blocker, Denver still has a great line.

This is what I see happening again with the Broncos. They excelled at run blocking last year - only partly because they had to.

Brandon Stokley's biggest fan
looks for an autograph.

With Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Stokley, Manning will have two serious threats to throw to on play action passes. During his record-breaking year in 2004, Manning used play fakes to constantly get Stokley open over the deep middle. He will do the same in Denver - at least until Stokley gets hurt. Basically, expect Eric Decker to take over the slot role for good after about two games.


The one weapon that Manning will really miss is Dallas Clark. Yes, I understand that Jacob Tamme, his former understudy, is on the team. He can look good in certain circumstances. Unfortunately for Tamme, the Broncos don't play in the CFL.


Whenever a NFL defense decided to take Tamme out of the game, all they had to do was put someone strong and powerful on him and he was done. Don't believe me? Just go dig up the tape on the Colts 2010 playoff loss to the Jets. The plastic bag in American Beauty has more power to stand it's ground than this guy.


It is clear to me that John Elway is doing a great job with the Broncos. He did not give Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, or Reggie Wayne a sniff. Why? Because they are old and done. Who wants a team that loses half their team to injuries every year - like the Colts did in recent times.

I trust Elway to put a viable team around Manning; the guy has been golden so far. And with a good defense, there will be no stopping Peyton. 

Mmmm... tastes like...  Victory!

He'd have six rings right now if he'd been lucky enough to be a unheralded 6th rounder whose arm strength took a mysterious quantum leap after college.










Other relevant links:

What Peyton Manning is doing (and how to beat him)

The hidden story of NFL rookie salaries

Should crazy people be allowed on the internet?

Yes, Chris Polian is *that* Bad

The blogosphere (wow, that really is a word) went nuts over Bob "Krabby" Kravitz's article questioning Chris Polian's credentials and his contribution to the team since he arrived in 2005.  He is a little late to the party since his article was pretty much a rehash of two articles I wrote on the same subject last year:


Should Peyton Manning re-sign with the Colts?


and


The Death of Reason: Bill Polian hands reins over to Chris Polian


This caused stampedeblue.com to sound off, causing profootballtalk.com to link to it, causing coltzilla.com and 18to88.com to refute it.  What a hullabaloo!


Now even though I have never met Chris Polian, it is difficult not to notice a steep decline in the drafting success for the Colts since his arrival and ascendancy in the organization.


My main interest in this story is that it looks to me that Peyton Manning's career is going to be tarnished by playing on talent-poor teams his last few years.  This pisses me off.


One of the arguments that has been put forth is that since the Colts are drafting at the end of the 1st round, that there are slim pickings to be found there.  And that is the reason for the lesser success in recent years.  


Sorry, but this does not wash at all.


Lets talk draft position.  Lets compare the players the Colts got in the 2nd round from 1999-2004 to who they got in the 1st round from 2005-2010.  Didn't see that one coming, didja guys?




1999: 36th pick overall, 5th pick in the second round:  Mike Peterson 
vs 
2005: 29th pick in the first round:  Marlin Jackson


Winner:  Mike Peterson / pre-Chris Polian


Don't get me wrong, I liked the Marlin Jackson pick.  But Peterson has had the better NFL career.




2000: 59th pick overall, 28th pick in the second round:  Marcus Washington
vs
2006: 30th pick in the first round:  Joseph Addai


Winner:  Marcus Washington / pre-Chris Polian


Washington left Indy with a lucrative free agent contract and played until 2009.  Addai has produced like a 4th round pick.




2001: 37th pick overall, 6th pick in the second round:  Idrees Bashir
vs
2007: 32nd pick in the first round:  Anthony Gonzalez


Winner:  Tie


Both overall were wasted picks.  Bashir was not a fit for the cover-two and Gozalez has been on the outs with Manning when he has not been injured.




2002: 42nd pick overall, 10th pick in the second round:  Larry Tripplett
vs
2008: 29th pick in the first round:  Tony Ugoh


Winner: Larry Tripplett / pre-Chris Polian 


Tripplett was a consistent starter for both the Colts and the Buffalo Bills over six seasons.  Ugoh was a nonathletic LT who looked like a mechanical man - stiff and no heart.




2003: 58th pick overall, 26th pick in the second round: Mike Doss
vs
2009: 27th pick in the first round:  Donald Brown


Winner: Mike Doss / pre-Chris Polian 


Mike started 42 games for the Colts over four season, and was a workmanlike if not spectacular player.  He went on to play for the Vikings and Bengals.  Brown has been tentative and injured to the rage of Colts fans.




2004: 44th pick overall, 12th pick in the second round:  Bob Sanders
vs
2010: 31st pick in the first round:  Jerry Hughes


Winner:  Bob Sanders / pre-Chris Polian 


Sanders was a wonderful shooting star that flamed after several all-pro seasons.  Hughes has done nothing at all.




So, in comparing six years on pre-Chris Polian 2nd round picks to six years of Chris Polian-influenced 1st round picks; pre-Chris Polian wins 5-0-1.  That is a landslide.




So as I have conclusively demonstrated, draft position is not to blame in any way for our bad draft picks since Chris Polian arrived.

The Death of Reason: Bill Polian hands reins over to Chris Polian

The day I have always dreaded has arrived.  Bill Polian has officially handed control of the Colts to Chris Polian.


As I detailed in the article "Should Peyton Manning re-sign with the Colts?", I feel that the Colts lack of production in recent drafts may be due to Chris Polian's increasing role in the decision making process.


Chris Polian was elevated to Assistant General Manager in 2004, and in the drafts from 2005 - 2010 I count only two solid players picked in the first three rounds (Kelvin Hayden 2005 & Jerraud Powers 2009).  These two are not stars - just solid players.  The first three rounds is where you draft your stars.


Thats three out of eighteen picks that the Colts have hit on in a five year period.


The breakdown:


2005
1 (29)             Marlin Jackson (CB)          -INJURY BUST
2 (60)             Kelvin Hayden (CB)          -SOLID PLAYER
3 (92)             Vincent Burns (DE)           -BUST
Marlin was solid before he blew up his knee - you could argue that this was an additional successful pick.


2006
1 (30)             Joseph Addai (RB)          -BUST
2 (62)             Tim Jennings (CB)          -BUST
3 (94)             Freddie Keiaho (OLB)    -BUST
Addai is a total bust.  Fans like to point out his blocking and such - but you don't need to burn a 1st rounder on a RB whose best quality is pass blocking.  Jennings was simply not a fit for a cover-two defense because of his size.


2007
1 (32)             Anthony Gonzalez (WR)     -BUST
2 (42)             Tony Ugoh (LT)                 -BUST
3 (95)             Daymeion Hughes (CB)      -BUST
3 (98)             Quinn Pitcock (DT)            -BUST
Gonzalez has not shown the ability to stay healthy, and he has also not shown a real connection to Manning.  They will cut him if he cannot produce this year.  The Ugoh trade was reportedly something that Chris Polian fought for - complete bust on lack of heart.


2008
2 (59)             Mike Pollak (C)                 -BUST
3 (93)             Phillip Wheeler (OLB)        
Pollak lacks the basic talent to compete at this level.  Simply not strong enough.  Wheeler showed something last year and may end up a solid player.


2009
1 (27)             Donald Brown (RB)          
2 (56)             Fili Moala (DT)
3 (92)             Jerraud Powers (CB)
To me, the jury is still out on Donald Brown.  He has been hurt a bit, but has shown some flashes when blocked for.  Moala started to show something last year and may yet end up as a solid player.  This could actually become a good draft - it is a little early to tell.


2010
1 (31)             Jerry Hughes (DE)
2 (63)             Pat Angerer (MLB)
3 (94)             Kevin Thomas (CB)
Angerer looked OK at times last year, the other two got very little playing time.


What about the prior years?  Here are our first picks of each draft from 1998-2004.  See if you notice a different trend:


1998              Peyton Manning
1999              Edgerrin James
2000              Rob Morris
2001              Reggie Wayne
2002              Dwight Freeney
2003              Dallas Clark
2004              Bob Sanders


I sense a trend - don't you?  With the exception of Rob Morris, every one of these players is a star and one of the top ten at their position in the NFL.


Since 2005 we have not drafted a single player who could be called a "star" with a straight face.  Even if you don't agree with me calling Addai or Gonzalez a bust - you would not say they were a star - right?


So where is all this headed?  The Colts will get weaker and weaker over the next few years.  Manning will cover up a lot of issues, but one year he will be either injured or just overcome with the lack of talent and we will fall hard.


The kind of trend I am seeing is Matt Millen-ish and it makes me very worried about the future.


Here is a follow-up article:  

Yes, Chris Polian is *that* Bad