What can Broncos fans expect from Manning and their team?

The linked words are an important part of this article, please remember to take a look at them . . .

Saith the outgoing Denver QB:
How come you two aren't sinking?

I'm taking a break from my non-stop Colts coverage to put in my final word on Peyton Manning and what Broncos fans can expect to see this season . . . and beyond. Any question? Feel free to contact me at (508) 543-8200


So, what are we looking at here?


In my opinion, Manning will have a dominant year and the Broncos are my favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this upcoming season. 


Why?


First of all, this Broncos team is more talented top to bottom than the two Colts teams that Manning took to the Super Bowl. Yes, I mean that.

Edgerrin James, right before
he blew out his knee.

Secondly, this will be the first time Manning has had a running game to work with since 2005. That was Edgerrin James's last season in Indy and at that time the offensive line was already starting to fade. As soon as defenses figured out that the Colts did not have a viable run threat, they started ignoring run fakes. If you look at Manning's yard per attempt by year, you'll see what I mean.

Chris Polian: Quinn Pitcock? Oh yeah,
he's got the best thumbs I've ever seen!

Peyton spent the final years of his Colt's career saddled by one bad Chris Polian pick after another - colossal busts Joseph Addai and Tony Ugoh being the foremost in my mind. 


I appreciate that Bill Polian wanted to cement his various offspring into cushy positions, but that fatherly instinct destroyed the Colts dynasty.

No caption could make
this more ridiculous.

Owner Jim Irsay waited too long to pull the plug on the rampant nepoliantism going on in the organization. This was a smell that even Lemon Zest couldn't cover up.

Mike Florio (right) passes his wisdom on to his new 
lead rumor-monger. Fifth new guy this week!

The current "topic" of conversation amongst the talent-less dregs that make up those who are paid to cover the NFL, is that Manning has not been throwing deep in Broncos Training Camp so far. From this they conclude that Manning's arm has not recovered enough to throw deep yet.


This is complete and utter BS. Seeing as how it takes far more arm strength to throw intermediate passes over the deep middle and middle outside of the field; what could possibly make someone think there is something wrong with his arm - based on the fact that he is not throwing long? 


The answer is idiocy. Sometimes these guys run out of bad things to say about their co-workers and start blindly lashing out at others.


One of the things that you Denver Fans are about to find out: Peyton Manning is possible the most misunderstood player in NFL history - by the mainstream NFL media that is.


That is why the vast majority of "analysis" you hear or read about him is sadly wrong. This Manning does not play in New York or New England. That means that most of the people "analyzing" Manning are doing so from highlights from the red zone channel. These knucleheads could never be bothered to actually watch a non-big market game all the way through. Anything west of Buffalo is just "fly-over territory" to these people.


This is why the article I wrote breaking down what was actually going on with Manning was such a hit. It was the first time that fans read something that actually jibed with what they saw with their own eyes.

Phil, your skin looks FANTASTIC!

About the only two analysts that seem to understand what Manning does is Phil Simms and Troy Aikman. Those are the only guys I can think of that don't spew incorrect information non-stop during a game.
This is why you should watch NFL games with the sound off. Someday, maybe the NFL will let you switch the audio track to what the announcers are spoon-fed in their earphones. That would be better.

John Madden to Jon Gruden: "Football isn't
interesting by itself! It's all about YOU!"

If you enjoy a game done by clowns like John Madden or Jon Gruden, then this article, blog, comments section, sport, etc, is not for you. Please leave now. This blog is about football. Not clowning.






What you are about to see in Denver is the rebirth of the best run faker in recent history. When Manning had his best statistical years with the Colts, they had Edgerrin James running that ball. James (after he blew out his knee) was amazing at getting four or five yards out of a running play that was blocked well enough for one. By running him on first downs, they Colts were constantly in 2nd and five type situations that really stressed the defense.

Even with losing their most powerful
blocker, Denver still has a great line.

This is what I see happening again with the Broncos. They excelled at run blocking last year - only partly because they had to.

Brandon Stokley's biggest fan
looks for an autograph.

With Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Stokley, Manning will have two serious threats to throw to on play action passes. During his record-breaking year in 2004, Manning used play fakes to constantly get Stokley open over the deep middle. He will do the same in Denver - at least until Stokley gets hurt. Basically, expect Eric Decker to take over the slot role for good after about two games.


The one weapon that Manning will really miss is Dallas Clark. Yes, I understand that Jacob Tamme, his former understudy, is on the team. He can look good in certain circumstances. Unfortunately for Tamme, the Broncos don't play in the CFL.


Whenever a NFL defense decided to take Tamme out of the game, all they had to do was put someone strong and powerful on him and he was done. Don't believe me? Just go dig up the tape on the Colts 2010 playoff loss to the Jets. The plastic bag in American Beauty has more power to stand it's ground than this guy.


It is clear to me that John Elway is doing a great job with the Broncos. He did not give Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, or Reggie Wayne a sniff. Why? Because they are old and done. Who wants a team that loses half their team to injuries every year - like the Colts did in recent times.

I trust Elway to put a viable team around Manning; the guy has been golden so far. And with a good defense, there will be no stopping Peyton. 

Mmmm... tastes like...  Victory!

He'd have six rings right now if he'd been lucky enough to be a unheralded 6th rounder whose arm strength took a mysterious quantum leap after college.










Other relevant links:

What Peyton Manning is doing (and how to beat him)

The hidden story of NFL rookie salaries

Should crazy people be allowed on the internet?

How the Jets Defense challenges the Colts Offense

The primary matchup that everyone else has been talking about is that between the Jets corners vs the Colts WRs.  It is expected that the Jets Darrelle Revis will again match up against Reggie Wayne and that Antonio Cromartie is going up against Garcon.

I think that the Colts outside WRs will be mostly taken out of the game.  This is based on recent games the Colts have played against strong man to man teams.  I expect that we will see Wayne catch a couple of the ten yard hitches that he is famous for and that they will hit Garcon on a few short slant routes, but I don't see the Colts getting any downfield passes to Wayne or Garcon since they are being defended by patently superior athletes.

Where the Colts will make their passing yards will be in man to man matchups against the Jet linebackers and safeties.

The Jets know that this is their weakness, so they will probably have to do some tricky things to keep from getting taken apart.

What we will see is a tough (but not bump and run) man to man on the outside and on the slot and running backs.  Where the tricky part is that the Jets will have a linebacker or lineman in a short zone defense about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage who will be keying on Peyton Manning's eyes.  This will be primarily to protect against quick crossing routes by Jacob Tamme.  This also helps the Jets control the Colts draw play as they will have someone with eyes in the backfield at all times.

Will the Colts be able to defeat this scheme?  Yes, but it will hinge on the time that Manning has to throw the ball.  You will still be able to have success throwing over the middle against this defense, but it will take time for Tamme to clear the middle and get away from the zone defender.

In this example the Colts are running a crossing pattern with Jacob Tamme at TE.  The Jets are shown here in one of their typical blitzes.  The SS, LILB, and the ROLB are all blitzing.  The LOLB is covering Tamme and the RILB is covering the running back.  The FS is in a zone defense covering the deep middle of the field.  The cornerbacks are all matched up on a single receiver in man.

The important player to look at is the Right Defensive End (RDE) for the Jets (in red).  Instead of rushing the passer as usual, he spins around and takes a position in the short middle of the field - covering that area in a zone defense.  As a large lineman, he does not have much range.  The hope is that Manning will not see him and throw a ball right to him, or that at least Manning will have to delay his throw to Tamme until he clears this area.  

This also has the effect of delaying Manning's switching to his secondary receiver (which in this case would be Garcon).  This can throw the timing of the whole play off.  By the time Tamme clears the zone area, if he is not open it will probably be too late to hit Garcon on the short In Route he is running.  The Jets would hope that the rush will have gotten to Manning before he can hit the check down receiver (the RB).

This is just one example of how this works - just a small part of the chess match between Manning and Rex Ryan.

Peyton Manning (and the Colts practice squad) Vs the mighty Patriots.

I'd have to say, I don't have a good feeling about this one.  The Patriots are coming off of an impressive win over the universally hated Steelers, so we are facing them on a high.  I don't think they will overlook us either.

Whether or not Austin Collie is able to play is probably the most important unknown going into Sunday's nationally televised game.  He was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, but so far reports are that he has tested out fine and is recovered from his scary concussion.

Belichick likes to take the top two options away from an opposing offense - forcing them out of their comfort zone.  Expect that Reggie Wayne will be doubled on most every play.  If Collie does not play, Jacob Tamme will be also doubled.  This would leave only the highly unreliable Pierre Garcon in single coverage.  Not real helpful considering he and Manning have had trouble getting on the same page.

We have not had a lot of success running against the Patriots in the past, and they are doing well against the run this year.  Their pass defense can be shaky, but I don't know if we can take advantage of that.

On the good side they have a lot of young players on defense that have little to no experience dealing with our offense.  Hopefully we can fool them a few times.

Since trading Randy Mesothelioma to the Vikings (who promptly dropped him like a important call on AT&T) the Patriots passing game is mostly a ball-control one.  Since they have no receivers who can really stretch the field, we really match up with them well.  Although the Patriots offense throws a lot of short passes, they are not always quick passes.  They have a lot of complicated clearing routes and often you will see Tom Brady hold the ball for a little while.  This gives us a better opportunity for a sack than you would usually have against a small ball offense.

Unfortunately our pass rush has not been very good this year, particularly on the road on grass.

As I see it, the Colts lose this one.  Lets say 24-17.  (Vegas has the Pats as a 3.5 point favorite).