Well, That Sucked: Colts lose to the Jets

The Jets got their running game going in the 2nd half and managed enough offense to force the Colts into what looked to be a game-winning drive.  That drive ended with a 50 yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri to give the Colts a two point lead.

What looked to be a hopeless situation for the Jets turned into great field position via a long kickoff return by Antonio Cromartie.

I thought Manning played really well overall, but our failure to *consistently* run on a defense that at times only had a single lineman on the field was our undoing.  Until the Colts can punish defenses that load up on the pass they will continue to be ineffective.

How the Jets Defense challenges the Colts Offense

The primary matchup that everyone else has been talking about is that between the Jets corners vs the Colts WRs.  It is expected that the Jets Darrelle Revis will again match up against Reggie Wayne and that Antonio Cromartie is going up against Garcon.

I think that the Colts outside WRs will be mostly taken out of the game.  This is based on recent games the Colts have played against strong man to man teams.  I expect that we will see Wayne catch a couple of the ten yard hitches that he is famous for and that they will hit Garcon on a few short slant routes, but I don't see the Colts getting any downfield passes to Wayne or Garcon since they are being defended by patently superior athletes.

Where the Colts will make their passing yards will be in man to man matchups against the Jet linebackers and safeties.

The Jets know that this is their weakness, so they will probably have to do some tricky things to keep from getting taken apart.

What we will see is a tough (but not bump and run) man to man on the outside and on the slot and running backs.  Where the tricky part is that the Jets will have a linebacker or lineman in a short zone defense about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage who will be keying on Peyton Manning's eyes.  This will be primarily to protect against quick crossing routes by Jacob Tamme.  This also helps the Jets control the Colts draw play as they will have someone with eyes in the backfield at all times.

Will the Colts be able to defeat this scheme?  Yes, but it will hinge on the time that Manning has to throw the ball.  You will still be able to have success throwing over the middle against this defense, but it will take time for Tamme to clear the middle and get away from the zone defender.

In this example the Colts are running a crossing pattern with Jacob Tamme at TE.  The Jets are shown here in one of their typical blitzes.  The SS, LILB, and the ROLB are all blitzing.  The LOLB is covering Tamme and the RILB is covering the running back.  The FS is in a zone defense covering the deep middle of the field.  The cornerbacks are all matched up on a single receiver in man.

The important player to look at is the Right Defensive End (RDE) for the Jets (in red).  Instead of rushing the passer as usual, he spins around and takes a position in the short middle of the field - covering that area in a zone defense.  As a large lineman, he does not have much range.  The hope is that Manning will not see him and throw a ball right to him, or that at least Manning will have to delay his throw to Tamme until he clears this area.  

This also has the effect of delaying Manning's switching to his secondary receiver (which in this case would be Garcon).  This can throw the timing of the whole play off.  By the time Tamme clears the zone area, if he is not open it will probably be too late to hit Garcon on the short In Route he is running.  The Jets would hope that the rush will have gotten to Manning before he can hit the check down receiver (the RB).

This is just one example of how this works - just a small part of the chess match between Manning and Rex Ryan.

Freeney at DT in passing situations: trouble for the Jets?

The Jets have one of the best offensive lines in football.  The one chink in the armour is young Matt Slauson at left guard, who replaces the departed Alan Faneca.

Coincidence or not - during the Titans game Dwight Freeney was lining up at right defensive tackle in passing situations.  If he does this vs the Jets, he would be matched up against the young Jets left guard Matt Slauson.

In those situations Freeney was spinning like mad and caused considerable problems for the Titans offensive line.

The short-area lateral movement of a offensive guard is generally not very good and this is a perfect situation for a player as quick and strong as Freeney to dominate.

I'll be watching this match-up on Saturday to be sure.

You also might want to check out this article: 

How the Jets Defense challenges the Colts Offense

Colts accept Christmas gifts from Titans and Jags - make playoffs

The Colts beat the Titans on Sunday in a game that ultimately only decided playoff seeding.  Now they are heading for a rematch of last years AFC Championship game against the NY Jets.  Had they not won, they would have been playing the Baltimore Ravens.

This was a typical Colts - Titans game where it seems not to matter what they respective records are, usually the outcome is decided as this one was, by a FG.

All indications are that this is the last time we will see Jeff Fisher on the sideline for the Titans.  I think he is one of the best coaches in the NFL and I will be glad to see him out of the division.  Hopefully he leaves the AFC altogether.

Some thoughts about this game:

• Dwight Freeney lined up at defensive tackle in some passing situations with Keyunta Dawson playing the RDE position.  This allowed Freeney to try his spin moves against the left guard - who typically has less lateral quickness.  It may be that they were trying this out for use in the playoffs, or just trying to get into the heads of their next opponent.
• The Titans primarily played man to man coverage all game and we had problems with it.  Expect to see lots of man coverage for the rest of this season.  The loss of Collie and Clark hurts us here the most.
• Garcon struggled all day to get free against the man coverage of the Titans.  Other than one long touchdown catch, he was not getting separation. 
• The offensive line continued their improved play.  Manning had time to throw for the most part and we had some nice runs from the shotgun formation.
• The defense has picked the right time to peak.  They allowed virtually no running room for the Titans.

I'll be posting short updates all week and hopefully will have a full blown preview of the Jets game up later in the week.

Sanchez will be a bust for the Jets

Watching Sanchez this preseason, he looks to have regressed since last year's playoffs.  He looks out of sync and confused.

What I see is that he is not a good fit for Brian Schottenheimer's offensive scheme.  The Jets currently run a scheme a system that looks to attack down the field and is predicated off of stretching the field vertically.  Sanchez looks to me like a West Coast QB and would do better in a short timing pass kind of system.

I don't think that he will really have a lot of success until he is in a system that is a better fit for him.